Silver Week Ahead: CPI, Warsh Testimony, and a Market at a Crossroads

Week of July 13, 2026

Where We Start the Week

Silver opens the week at $58.72, down 1.58% from Friday's close of $59.66 after a rough end to last week's session. The Shanghai premium remains notably elevated, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange pricing silver at $64.68 — a spread of roughly 10% over spot. That kind of persistent premium reflects genuine physical demand in Asia that isn't yet showing up in Western paper pricing.

Gold holds at $4,065, with the gold/silver ratio sitting at 69.23 — historically elevated territory that suggests silver remains undervalued relative to gold on a long-term basis, even after this year's extraordinary volatility.

The Week's Two Defining Events

This is not a routine week. Two back-to-back catalysts will dominate price action and likely set silver's direction through late summer.

Monday, July 14 — June CPI (8:30 AM ET)

June's inflation data covers a month when oil prices were falling — the Iran ceasefire was still holding and WTI briefly dipped below $69. That backdrop should produce a softer headline number relative to May's 4.2% reading. Watch core CPI closely: May came in at 2.9%, and any move above 3.0% would signal broadening inflation and likely add pressure to silver's monetary side.

The complication: markets are not pricing June's reality. They're pricing July's — where oil has already spiked 5%+ following the ceasefire collapse and renewed strikes on Iran. A soft CPI print is not automatically bullish here. If traders read it as a one-month dip rather than a genuine trend, the initial rally could fade quickly.

Tuesday–Wednesday, July 15–16 — Fed Chair Warsh Congressional Testimony

This is Warsh's first appearance on Capitol Hill as Fed Chair, arriving one day after CPI with a fresh inflation print still on the table. The FOMC minutes from his first meeting already revealed a 9-8 split on whether a rate hike is warranted before year-end — a genuine divide, not a lopsided debate. Markets will parse tone as much as substance. Warsh has built his communication style around deliberate ambiguity; don't expect direct rate guidance. Watch instead for how he characterizes the June data and whether his language around inflation sounds like "progress" or "insufficient."

COT Positioning Context

The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report (dated July 7) shows commercial net short positioning at -43,095 contracts — well within the typical -30K to -50K range. This is not an extreme positioning setup in either direction, which means the market isn't particularly stretched heading into these events. Elevated short positions that could fuel a squeeze aren't clearly in place, but neither is the kind of over-optimistic managed money positioning that often precedes sharp selloffs.

Physical Market Context

PSLV holdings stand at 215.6 million ounces, relatively stable. Dealer premiums tell an interesting story:

The Eagle-to-round spread of nearly 7 percentage points is meaningful context for stackers this week.

What to Consider

The Eagle premium gap warrants attention. At 15.1% over spot versus 8.4% for generic rounds, Eagles are carrying a premium spread of roughly 6.7 percentage points — wider than the historical norm. For stackers looking to add ounces into potential CPI-driven weakness this week, generic rounds or junk silver (at just 5.1% premium) offer meaningfully more metal per dollar. If spot dips toward the $57–$58 range on a hot CPI print, that's worth keeping in mind before defaulting to coins.

What to Watch This Week

• Monday 8:30 AM ET — June CPI: Headline vs. May's 4.2%; core vs. May's 2.9%
• Warsh testimony tone: Does he describe June data as "progress" or frame inflation as still elevated?
• DXY direction: Dollar at 101 is a pivot zone — sustained weakness supports silver; a rally above 102 adds headwind
• Shanghai premium: Continued elevation above 10% signals persistent physical demand beneath the paper volatility
• $57–$58 support zone: The level that held during June's hawkish shock; a decisive break lower would bring the $54–$55 range back into focus
• Gold/silver ratio: Watch for movement above 70 (silver underperforming) vs. compression back toward 67–68 (silver recovering)

The 72-hour stretch from Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon may well be the most event-dense window for silver this summer. Position sizing and patience matter more than directional conviction right now.

References - LBMA Silver Price: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/precious-metal-prices - COMEX Silver: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.html - CFTC COT Report: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

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