Silver Week Ahead: August 10, 2026

Where We Start the Week

Silver opens Monday on a constructive note. COMEX silver closed Friday at $64.07, building on a modest Friday gain of roughly 0.6% from $63.69. Overnight, Shanghai Gold Exchange pricing came in at $71.91 — a premium of approximately 12.2% over spot. That level sits in elevated territory but is not unusual given the structural differences in Chinese silver demand and local market dynamics. Worth monitoring as the week develops, but not a flashing signal on its own.

Gold is holding above $4,337, keeping the gold/silver ratio at 67.7. That remains on the lower end of its recent range, suggesting silver has been keeping pace with gold rather than lagging behind.

Key Events This Week

The macro calendar will drive much of the action mid-week. Key data releases to track:

• Tuesday: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) — an early read on inflation pressures
• Wednesday: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the week's main event for precious metals; any surprise in either direction could move silver meaningfully
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, retail sales data
• Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary August reading)

The dollar is sitting at 99.7 on the DXY — slightly below the 100 level that has acted as a psychological marker. A softer CPI print could weaken the dollar further and provide a tailwind for silver. Conversely, a hotter reading could firm up the dollar and pressure metals.

Technical Levels to Watch

Silver has been trading in a relatively orderly range. A clean break above $65 on volume following CPI could open the next leg, while a failure there keeps the range intact.

COT Positioning

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report (dated August 4) shows commercial net short positioning at -40,422 contracts. That sits in the middle of the typical range for this market — not an overstretched short position that would signal a major squeeze setup, but also not a particularly light positioning that would suggest commercials have stepped aside. In short, COT is neutral to slightly constructive and does not present an obvious headwind at current levels.

What to Consider

Physical silver premiums have compressed notably. Eagles are running at a 12.9% premium, generic rounds at 8.2%, and junk silver at just 5.4%. For stackers adding to physical positions, junk silver at 5.4% over spot represents straightforward value relative to its silver content — particularly compared to Eagles, which carry more than double that premium for largely the same underlying metal. If your goal is ounces at the lowest effective cost per unit, the spread between these products is worth factoring into any purchase this week.

What to Watch This Week

• Wednesday CPI release — the primary catalyst for direction
• DXY behavior around the 100 level — dollar weakness supports silver
• Shanghai premium — watch whether the 12%+ level persists or narrows
• $65 resistance on COMEX — a sustained break would be technically significant
• PSLV holdings (currently 215.4M oz) — any notable ETF flows mid-week
• Gold/silver ratio — holding near 67.7; a move below 67 would indicate silver outperformance

References - LBMA Silver Price: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/precious-metal-prices - COMEX Silver: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.html - CFTC COT Report: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

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