Silver Market Update — July 24, 2026
The Shanghai premium is doing the talking today.
Silver pushed through $58.28 on the COMEX this session, a clean 1.39% gain from yesterday's $57.48. That kind of move on a quiet summer trading day deserves a closer look — and the data offers some useful context about where the pressure is coming from.
Key Data Points
1. The Shanghai Spread Is Elevated
Shanghai Gold Exchange silver is pricing at $64.52 against COMEX spot at $58.28 — a spread of roughly $6.24, or about 10.7%. That lands in elevated territory by historical standards. This kind of premium typically signals strong physical demand in Chinese markets outpacing locally available supply, and it can act as a sustained upward pull on global silver prices. It's worth watching whether this spread narrows (suggesting the arbitrage is being closed) or holds firm heading into next week.
2. The Gold/Silver Ratio Sits at 69.59
| Metric | Current | Historical Context |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Spot | $58.28 | +1.39% today |
| Gold Spot | $4,055.87 | — |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 69.59 | Historically avg. ~65-70 |
| Shanghai Silver | $64.52 | ~10.7% premium to COMEX |
The gold/silver ratio at 69.59 sits near the middle of its long-run historical range. This isn't a screaming undervaluation signal for silver, but it does suggest silver hasn't yet closed the gap relative to gold's move to $4,055. If the ratio compresses toward the low-60s — as it has during previous silver rallies — the implied silver price would be meaningfully higher from here.
3. COT Positioning Is Unremarkable — Which Is Actually Reassuring
The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report (dated July 14) shows commercial net short positioning at -42,597 contracts. That's squarely within the typical range of -30K to -50K, meaning commercials haven't yet loaded up heavily on the short side. Elevated commercial shorts often act as a headwind for rallies, so the current positioning leaves room for further price appreciation without that particular brake being applied.
What It Means for Stackers
Physical demand in China is clearly firm. Combined with moderate speculative positioning and a dollar index holding below 102, the near-term backdrop for silver prices isn't being fought by the usual headwinds. PSLV holdings at 215.4 million ounces reflect continued institutional interest in physical silver exposure.
Premium spreads on physical product remain wide, however, which is the real cost of entry for stackers right now.
| Product | Dealer Premium |
|---|---|
| American Eagles | 27.9% |
| Generic Rounds | 15.8% |
| Junk Silver | 13.3% |
What to Consider
Junk silver's 13.3% premium is notably the most accessible entry point relative to spot among common physical formats today. For stackers who want direct metal exposure without paying the Eagles premium of nearly 28%, junk silver at current spreads offers the most silver per dollar. Consider checking your local coin dealers for 90% U.S. coinage — the spread can sometimes compress further in-person versus online retailers.
Bottom Line
Silver's 1.39% move to $58.28 is supported by a real signal: an elevated Shanghai premium suggesting firm physical demand from the world's largest consumer market. COT positioning isn't a concern at current levels, and the gold/silver ratio leaves room for silver to gain ground on gold. The main friction for stackers remains wide dealer premiums — junk silver at 13.3% over spot is the practical value play for those looking to add physical metal today.
References - LBMA Silver Price: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/precious-metal-prices - COMEX Silver: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.html - CFTC COT Report: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
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